Global Ad Spend Forecast Hints at the Growth of Retail Media and CTV

As 2025 unfolds, it’s clear this year will chart a new course compared to the action-packed 2024, which was dominated by the Olympics, Paralympics, elections, and other major events. These milestones drove substantial spikes in media spending. In contrast, 2025 promises steady progress and consistent advancements across the global media landscape.

This steady pace doesn’t signal a slowdown in growth. Instead, it reflects a shift in how brands evaluate market trends and determine media investments. Understanding current trajectories is crucial for advertisers, CMOs, and brands planning their next move.

This year brings new catalysts that are expected to shape global ad spending. Dentsu’s Global Ad Spend Forecast offers deep insights into these drivers, providing a strategic roadmap for marketing professionals aiming to future-proof their campaigns.

Media Spending on the Rise: A Strategic Imperative for CMOs

An impressive 89% of CMOs plan to increase media ad spending in 2025, viewing it as a key lever for business growth. This confidence persists despite ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainties.

The IMF’s World Economic Outlook projects global economic growth at 3.2% for both 2024 and 2025. But regional disparities persist:

  • Europe: Countries like Germany and Italy face slowdowns due to weak manufacturing output.
  • Emerging Markets: Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and Central Asia contend with conflicts, oil production cuts, and extreme weather impacts.
  • Economic Leaders: The US (2.2%), India (6.5%), and China (4.5%) are poised for growth, driven by investments in AI, consumption, and tech manufacturing.

These projections suggest a mirrored trend in media ad spending, with regional growth aligning with broader economic patterns.

America Leads the Pack

The US is forecast to experience 5% ad spend growth in 2025, with increased investments in retail media, streaming, paid social, and search. Canada shows moderate growth, with broadcast still commanding significant influence. In EMEA, media ad spend may climb to 5%, while Asia-Pacific is on track for a 5.8% rise in 2025, totaling $253.4 billion.

With 88% of CMOs citing media as a crucial growth partner, brands are now leaning into media strategy to boost visibility, engagement, and long-term value.

Welcome to the Algorithm Era

Dentsu predicts that by 2027, algorithms will drive 79% of media and ad spending. With an abundance of user data from digital touchpoints, brands are entering a new era of algorithm-powered media planning and audience targeting.

This evolution—from broadcast to ad tech, and now to algorithmic personalization—requires brands to rethink their strategies. However, if everyone relies on the same algorithms in the same way, saturation is inevitable. CMOs must creatively differentiate their use of algorithm-driven tools to remain competitive.

Key Catalysts for Media Spend in 2025

Digital ad spend is set to grow by 9.2% in 2025, accounting for 62.7% of the total advertising market. Key areas of opportunity include:

Retail Media: A Disruptive Force

Amazon Ads and Walmart Connect are revolutionizing digital advertising, allowing brands to place ads directly on retail platforms. Retail media could surpass linear TV by 2025 and even paid digital media by 2027. New entrants like CVS and PayPal are also pushing innovation in this fast-growing space.

Broadcast and CTV: Coexisting in a Hybrid World

Broadcast media remains relevant due to the boost from global events in 2024. But 2025 will see CTV platforms like Netflix and Prime Video gain further momentum. CTV ad spend is forecasted to grow by 18.4% in 2025. Navigating the fragmented streaming ecosystem requires a data-first, platform-specific strategy.

New Media Channels: Expanding Horizons

New media formats—such as audio, digital out-of-home (OOH), and even traditional print—are gaining traction. Podcasts and audio streaming offer fresh engagement opportunities. Digital OOH is also surging, making up 67% of media investments in the UK. Despite digital dominance, print media still holds consumer trust, retaining a place in the media mix.

Adapting to a Multi-Channel Reality

To thrive in the algorithm-driven era, brands need a diversified, multi-channel strategy. Leveraging retail media, CTV, and emerging platforms is essential for navigating a competitive and rapidly shifting environment.

Cut to the Chase

Dentsu’s Global Ad Spend Forecast 2025 presents a future shaped by strategic investments, growing optimism, and the dawn of the algorithm era. CMOs are preparing for higher spending across traditional and digital channels, with retail media and CTV leading the charge. As digital maturity increases, innovation, data, and agility will become the defining traits of successful marketing strategies in 2025 and beyond.